Obama's National Security Policies

Following up on my last article on Mr. Obama's national security policies and my recent radio show on Radio Liberty I would like to summarize our current threat and assess what our adversaries are doing:

Our Soft underbelly:

Venezuela:

Hugo Chavez is funding many leftist organizations and candidates. He's won recently in El Salvador where a communist has been elected President. Chavez has also expanded his funding of FARC and has assisted in supplying bases for Hezbollah and other terrorist groups training in Venezuela.The worst thing that is going on is he is now shifting to massive funding of leftist candidates in Mexico and Peru and using subversion in Panama., Panama . is the new Casablanca and the intelligence war is expanding with the US intelligence community, Chinese, FARC operatives, and a variety of other foreign services i.e. Taiwan, France and Brazil as well as Colombia and England operate in Panama.The biggest danger is that of Chavez funding leftists in Mexico. If a leftist candidate is elected in Mexico it would completely change the national security posture of the United States.Chavez would not only now have anti-American Presidents in Cuba, Bolivia,Ecuador, Nicaragua,and El Salvador but in Mexico. In addition he continues to fund leftists and communists in Peru and in Argentina.Chavez is even pouring money into Colombia as the next year's election may actually see FARC candidates elected.Only Chile and Colombia are standing up to Chavez's subversion.Chavez is advocating war against the USA and is steadily building his arsenal and reducing the US position in Latin America. Both Russia and China support Chavez as does Iran and fundamentalist Muslims.

Russia:

Russia has now formally embarked on a major arms build-up regardless of tough economic times.Russia plans to build 6 to 20 new submarines equipped with cruise missiles.Russia is embarking on new ICBM's and more sophisticated nuclear warheads.Russia has also developed one of the most sophisticated anti-aircraft weapons systems and supplying to Iran, Venezuela etc.Russia is also developing new tanks, naval warfare ships,and a new fleet of long range bombers. While not on the scale of the cold war-the new Russian military is leaner, meaner and more technologically advanced than the USA in certain areas.

China:

While China is playing the wait and see game they have indicated no more funding for US loans. They are waiting to see how bad the US and the West's economies are and if they deteriorate they will expand their goals of a blue water navy and greater development of ICBM's. They will also position themselves to take or co-op Taiwan and eventually push the US out of Pacific bases.

Iran:

Iran believes Mr. Obama will give them everything they want-dropping the economic sanctions,releasing the billions the US and West have frozen and obtaining US oil technology which they need desperately.

North Korea:

This crazy country may in fact want to have a war with South Korea and or believe it can extort more from the USA by continued threats of missile development.The USA has done everything it can and it still is not good enough for the North Koreans. We have shipped food, fuel, dropped sanctions and taken North Korea off the list of terrorist countries and the North Koreans have reneged on the agreements to stop developing nuclear weapons.The North Koreans continue to ship nuclear technology to the Mideast and continue to verbally threaten South Korea and the USA. A new missile launch could be for the eventual development of detonating over the USA to destroy our communications ability.

Venezuela

Hugo Chavez has scored again. By supplying cash to voters and campaign monies to candidates in El Salvador he has helped bring in another anti-American regime. El Salvador now has a Communist as President.Chavez has scored victories in Bolivia, Ecuador,and El Salvador. He has also strengthened ties with Nicaragua and of course Cuba . His intelligence service was caught in Miami supplying money in the Argentina election 16 months ago. Chavez is using his money to develop anti-American left-wing regimes. Rumours now indicate he is expanding his intelligence operations and funneling monies to left-wing groups in Panama and even Cost Rica. Mexico last year broke up several rings funded by Chavez. Only Brazil, Colombia and Mexico seem unaffected by his subversion. Chavez is also helping fund left-wing groups in America. He also supports Americans who are against the School of America's,including the new CIA Director, Leon Panetta's daughter. Chavez has also signed agreements with Russia to establish bomber bases in Venezuela, assist on a new naval base for Russian ships and he has purchased several Russian submarines as well as 4 billion in Russian equipment i.e,new Mig air planes, naval ships,attack combat helicopters and weapons(275,000 AK47 machine guns).Iranians work at his IVIC nuclear facility. Hezbollah trains in Venezuela's desert. Hamas works in Venezuela's intelligence headquarters the heliocide. China has built a satellite launch station and base. Hezbollah, FARC, Hamas and others coordinate intelligence in Venezuela with Muslim groups. Chavez kicked out the DEA and has asked Ecuador and other countries to kick out the DEA, as well as American diplomats. Yesterday referred to Obama as "ignorant" and along with Iran continues to denigrate America and its leadership. When will Obama's policy makers start to pay attention to this very serious threat?

Mr Barack Hussein Obama's "National Security Plan"

Mr. Obama wants to open up???!!!???

• Cuba -US relations and drop the sanctions. Very good idea as Cuban-Americans are losing their clout anyway and its a great way to outmaneuver Hugo Chavez and his aid to Cuba and better to stop Russia from rebuilding the Lourdes,20 Cuba spy-listening station and building a naval base. Problem: Raul Castro won't open up to the US-he's already signed long term agreements with Russia and Venezuela. Its all part of an Iran-Venezuela, Cuba-Russian conspiracy against the USA. Nice try Mr. Obama--you will actually weaken our position .

• Russia-after spending a good career against the Soviets and Russians the USA should learn we cant negotiate with communists...or worse a Putin mafia and Putin's thugs. Russians are trained to use negotiation to get what they want. Obama wants to drop the missile shield for "Russian"cooperation on Iran----this may prove to be the biggest foreign policy blunder in recent American history. Russia gets us to drop the shield. What does the USA get? Peace in our times-that's what Obama will try and sell to the American public. We should not pander to the Russians at all. We don't need the Russians-they are expanding their intelligence services against us, trying to sabotage NATO and continue to extort the Europeans on energy.

• China-actual cooperation between China and USA is building. Many signs the Chinese are cooperating more with the USA but still would like to push the USA out of the Pacific and build their blue water navy(20years away-maybe more). Bush should be given credit for this-Obama might blow it! Odd man out-the Crazy North Koreans. China has shown a number of examples of cooperation as well as their own foreign policy to expand into the world's shipping lanes, Latin America and Africa.

• Iran- is the biggest problem we have now. Obama wants to drop economic sanctions against Iran, unfreeze their billions in EU and USA assets we have frozen and give Iran oil technology. Obama believes this will lead to better relations with Syria, out maneuver Hezbollah and Hamas and lay the groundwork for Middle east peace. George Mitchell has been instructed to get the Israelis and Palestinians talking but hold off until Iran and USA have an agreement. This will be the greatest foreign policy mistake in our history. Iran will then have money to give more to terrorists and Hezbollah, embolden Syria against Israel and make Iran the regional power in the area. It will block the USA from getting oil access to Central Asia, make us lose face with Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan and Egypt and worse---abandon our best ally in the area-Israel-a democracy!! Unlike sanctions against Cuba which don't work-sanctions against Iran do work? They are working. And what do we get from Iran? That they stop nuclear development? That we must accept a nuclear Iran? That we must agree to a peaceful nuclear Iran? Who knows. Obama does not care. He wants a swift agreement with Iran. Odd man out: Israel. This type of agreement with Iran and the USA will basically abandon Israel. I doubt if the USA today would even offer any support to Israel if they on their own strike at Iran's nuclear plants/facilities.

• Afghanistan-Obama will change his position several times in the next few months. To build up more troops or reduce troops and deal with the Taliban. No one seems to understand Mr. Obama's plans here.

• Venezuela: The worst national security nightmare brewing: Chavez has 5 billion in Russian arms, has funded election victories in Bolivia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Nicaragua and has pumped billions to Cuba. He now is trying to overthrow or influence governments in Argentina, Panama, Costa Rica. His anti-American radio station apparently is winning over the poor all through Latin America while propping up comments about the Chinese, Iran and Russia and Cuba. Iran runs the IVIC nuclear facility in Caracas, Chinese are all over and just built a satellite launch station and are building a billion dollar listening station. Hezbollah trains in several areas as does Al-Queda and Hamas. Russia is planning a naval base and air base with Russian bombers in Venezuela!

Watch Obama to ignore Venezuela altogether! Watch Obama to abandon or downsize support for Israel. Watch for Obama to use the crisis in our economy to reduce, block or minimize the Pentagon and new Intelligence community proposals. Obama's "soft power" approach will be very well greeted by Islamic fundamentalists, leftists and anti-Americans. The "cult" of Obama is rising and he can do no wrong-Europeans are embracing his ideas as will the Islamic world and the leftists world! Obama will give in, appease and get very little in return from Russia,Venezuela, Iran. Eventually America will find sane leadership as when Ronald Reagan came forward. Hopefully it will be in the next presidential election.

Iran's Defensive Strategy

The world has been focused on the recent diplomatic failures with Iran and the defiance it continues to exhibit over its nuclear ambitions. Recent events have demonstrated that the Europeans are tired of Iranian tactics and brinkmanship. The effort to go to the UN Security Council and impose sanctions has brought Europe and especially France closer to the American point of view. Even Jacques Chirac threatened Iran several weeks ago, stating publicly that France has the nuclear option of protecting itself from a rogue state with nuclear weapons.
While this unity is designed with the intent of halting Iran’s nuclear weapons program, the Western allies often ignore the broader implications of Iran seeking to achieve its foreign policy and national security goals.

Iran continues to threaten Israel, fund terrorism, and to accelerate its nuclear weapons program. In addition to its holocaust denial scenario and defiance of its major European trading partners, Iran has not only specific goals for its foreign policy but military plans to defend itself

In December, 2005 the Atlantic Monthly laid out a scenario of how Israel might attack Iran. The magazine even contained an interactive full color DVD complete with illustrations and Israeli jets striking targets in Iran. Later the Pentagon revealed its own potential attack plan suggesting a major military strike by American warships. This scenario has hundreds of new cruise and tomahawk missiles being launched by our carriers, submarines and Arleigh Burke destroyers based in the Persian Gulf. Rumors abounded the U.S. also had two secret Special Forces bases near Iran ready to drop commandos against selected Iranian sites.

The Israelis recently acquired newly-developed U.S. bunker busters that can penetrate deep into the Iranian nuclear research and development facilities. The U.S. says there are about 477 targets that can be destroyed by air attacks and missile attacks. The Israelis claim they only need to take out about 50 key nuclear sites to set the Iranian program back 5 to 7 years or longer. Both the American and Israeli scenarios are designed to take out nuclear facilities, not to invade Iran or destroy major cities. Although some of the various scenarios may be designed as disinformation on the part of both the Americans and Israelis, the Iranians are taking these potential attack scenarios seriously.

What are the likely Iranian responses?

The first thing to recognize is the difference between Iran and Iraq. Prior to the last Iraq War, rumors circulated that the Iraqis had plans of WMD attacks, terrorists in the U.S. (or channeling terrorist to the U.S. from France and the UK) and also had a strong Revolutionary Guard that would inflict heavy casualties on the Americans and our allies.

Twenty-one days after the start of hostilities, Iraq was defeated and there were no WMD attacks and not a single terrorist attack outside Iraqi borders.

The Iranians have designed a much different defensive strategy. They know the U.S. is neither capable nor interested in a ground war invasion. They know that both Israel and America seeks to destroy only its nuclear facilities not invade or destroy its cities. Some radical mullahs, as apart of a doomsday type cult in Iran, however, truly believe the U.S. is intent on destroying the centuries old Persian culture.

Iran’s leadership also knows that U.S. foreign policy, urged on by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Israel, want to see a non-fundamentalist regime in Iran be the dominant leader in the region.
Thus the Iranians have interpreted all of these potential actions as signs of disrespect (in every negotiating session with the European Union the Iranians have commented that the U.S. shows them no respect).

Over the last five years the Iranians have also created the following defensive attack strategy:

1) Accelerate the development of several, maybe up to 5 nuclear bombs, coupled with a deployment strategy of missile technology gained from Pakistan, China and North Korea. These missiles are now capable of being equipped with nuclear weapons could hit Israel, London and most of the 7th Fleet targets (American ships and bases in the Persian Gulf).

2) Iran has fully-trained and equipped terrorists established in the USA, Venezuela, Mexico and probably Canada. These operatives may have weapons of mass destruction and also have plans to bomb American shopping centers and/or symbolic targets to create fear and mass panic that will hopefully damage the American economy.

These terrorist are zealots who may and probably will engage in suicide bombings. These particular spy/terrorists are compartmentalized from and not part of Hezbollah who have their bases in Venezuela, Canada and covert operatives in the USA.

3) Strike at targets within Europe. The French government under Chirac in 2003 made the mistake of issuing over 5,000 visas for Iranian “students” to come to France. France was trying to placate its own Islamic community and ingratiate itself with oil rich Iran. Many of these Iranian students obtained French passports and then migrated to Canada, Venezuela and some to the USA.

The Iranians have every intention of retaliating against an attack on their soil. They believe that negotiations with Europe, the UN and the U.S. are over and they could care less about economic sanctions.

Iran is also not interested in using “oil” as a weapon. They know the U.S. has many new sources of oil, huge reserves, and that the U.S. believes a one week attack against Iranian nuclear targets would not significantly impact the world economy. American diplomats have assured the European Union, China, Japan and its other closest allies any attack on Iran would be over in a week or less. The Iranians also know this and know oil can’t be used as a weapon.
Some of the moderate mullahs in Iran believe an attack, while devastating to their nuclear ambitions, would not destroy their religion, culture or their fundamentalist Islamic government. The more radical leadership is seeking to destroy Israel once and for all and aiming also to seriously damage the United States through terrorist attacks.

The missing link here is the failure of diplomacy and a fait accompli that war is looming. While the Bush Administration is suggesting radio broadcasts to encourage dissidents in Iran, its real strategy is to have the EU and Russia do more to pressure Iran and to even have Republican and Democrats forge a unified front to demand Bush to take military action. The Bush Administration is still smarting over the failure to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, and it wants our European allies and Congress to call for military action against Iran. While it is likely there will be much rhetoric on all sides between now and the November Congressional elections, it is highly likely any military action will take place after November 2006 and toward the remaining months of the Bush presidency.